Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty     

Lisa Cheong  Susanne Bleisch  Allison Kealy  Kevin Tolhurst  Tom Wilkening  Matt Duckham 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(7):1377-1404

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.  相似文献   

Iceland as a therapeutic landscape: white wilderness spaces for well-being     

Brooke  Kaelan  Williams  Allison 《GeoJournal》2021,86(3):1275-1285

Therapeutic landscapes are reputed to have a lasting repute for realizing healing. Traditional therapeutic landscapes have recognized natural environments as often sought after places for well-being. Such places promote wellness via their close encounter with nature, facilitating relaxation and restoration, and enhancing a combination of physical, mental, and spiritual healing. The physical environment of Iceland is explored through a case study approach, primarily employing data from the field notebooks of post-secondary students travelling in Iceland, as well as the authors’ ethnographic field experience in Iceland. Iceland is examined using both a traditional understanding of therapeutic landscapes, as well as the contemporary understanding of the coloured landscape. In addition to the colour white, reflected in the glacial ice, moving water, and geo-thermal steams, black and various other colours in combination are discussed.

  相似文献   

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Reply by authors to V. K. Gupta and M. D. Trifunac     

Wen-Hwa Wu  H. Allison Smith 《地震工程与结构动力学》1995,24(11):1543-1544

  相似文献   

The relations between modulus of elasticity and temperature in the context of the experimental simulation of rock weathering by fire     

A. S. Goudie  R. J. Allison  S. J. McLaren 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1992,17(6):605-615

Fires occur frequently in many biomes and generate high temperatures on the ground surface. There are many field examples of fire causing rock disintegration. The simulation of fire in the laboratory (using a furnace) and the monitoring of changes in rock modulus of elasticity (with a Grindosonic apparatus), reveal that different rocks respond differently to heating. Significant decreases in elasticity occur at temperatures as low as 200°C and granites display particularly marked reductions. Extended periods of heating are not required for significant reductions to occur. It is postulated that the degree of change in elasticity as a result of simulated fire is such that rock outcrops subjected to real fires are likely to be sufficiently modified as to increase their susceptibility to erosion and weathering processes.  相似文献   

Petrologic insights from the spectra of the unbrecciated eucrites: Implications for Vesta and basaltic asteroids     

Rhiannon G. MAYNE  Jessica M. SUNSHINE  Harry Y. McSWEEN  Timothy J. McCOY  Catherine M. CORRIGAN  Allison GALE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(7):1074-1092

Abstract– We investigate the relationship between the petrology and visible–near infrared spectra of the unbrecciated eucrites and synthetic pyroxene–plagioclase mixtures to determine how spectra obtained by the Dawn mission could distinguish between several models that have been suggested for the petrogenesis of Vesta’s crust (e.g., partial melting and magma ocean). Here, we study the spectra of petrologically characterized unbrecciated eucrites to establish spectral observables, which can be used to yield mineral abundances and compositions consistent with petrologic observations. No information about plagioclase could be extracted from the eucrite spectra. In contrast, pyroxene dominates the spectra of the eucrites and absorption band modeling provides a good estimate of the relative proportions of low‐ and high‐Ca pyroxene present. Cr is a compatible element in eucrite pyroxene and is enriched in samples from primitive melts. An absorption at 0.6 μm resulting from Cr³⁺ in the pyroxene structure can be used to distinguish these primitive eucrites. The spectral differences present among the eucrites may allow Dawn to distinguish between the two main competing models proposed for the petrogenesis of Vesta (magma ocean and partial melting). These models predict different crustal structures and scales of heterogeneity, which can be observed spectrally. The formation of eucrite Allan Hills (ALH) A81001, which is primitive (Cr‐rich) and relatively unmetamorphosed, is hard to explain in the magma ocean model. It could only have been formed as a quench crust. If the magma ocean model is correct, then ALHA81001‐like material should be abundant on the surface of Vesta and the Vestoids.  相似文献   

The potential origins and palaeoenvironmental implications of high temporal resolution δO heterogeneity in coral skeletons     

Nicola Allison  Adrian A. Finch 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(19):5537-322

δ¹⁸O was determined at high spatial resolution (beam diameter ∼30 μm) by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) across 1-2 year sections of 2 modern Porites lobata coral skeletons from Hawaii. We observe large (>2‰) cyclical δ¹⁸O variations that typically cover skeletal distances equivalent to periods of ∼20-30 days. These variations do not reflect seawater temperature or composition and we conclude that skeletal δ¹⁸O is principally controlled by other processes. Calcification site pH in one coral record was estimated from previous SIMS measurements of skeletal δ¹¹B. We model predicted skeletal δ¹⁸O as a function of calcification site pH, DIC residence time at the site and DIC source (reflecting the inputs of seawater and molecular CO₂ to the site). We assume that oxygen isotopic equilibration proceeds at the rates observed in seawater and that only the aqueous carbonate ion is incorporated into the precipitating aragonite. We reproduce successfully the observed skeletal δ¹⁸O range by assuming that DIC is rapidly utilised at the calcification site (within 1 h) and that ∼80% of the skeletal carbonate is derived from seawater. If carbonic anhydrase catalyses the reversible hydration of CO₂ at the calcification site, then oxygen isotopic equilibration times may be substantially reduced and a larger proportion of the skeletal carbonate could be derived from molecular CO₂. Seasonal skeletal δ¹⁸O variations are most pronounced in the skeleton deposited from late autumn to winter (and coincide with the high density skeletal bands) and are dampened in skeleton deposited from spring to summer. We observed no annual pattern in sea surface temperature or photosynthetically active radiation variability which could potentially correlate with the coral δ¹⁸O. At present we are unable to resolve an environmental cue to drive seasonal patterns of short term skeletal δ¹⁸O heterogeneity.  相似文献   

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Holocene coastal sediments adjacent to archaeological ruins in Aqaba,Jordan     

Alivia J. Allison  Tina M. Niemi 《Geoarchaeology》2010,25(5):602-625

Stratified cultural remains from the Early Roman/Nabataean to Byzantine periods in the coastal zone of Aqaba, Jordan, and analyses of thirteen sediment cores provide evidence for changes in the depositional environment during the Holocene. The overall trend in subsurface sediments is a basal marine transgressive layer overlain by a regressional sequence of embayment lagoonal sediments identified from microfossil analyses, and backshore pond, alluvium, and eolian deposits until the 1st century B.C., when mudbrick structures appear. Based on two radiocarbon dates, a brackish water coastal embayment formed prior to ca. 5900–5700 B.C. and was subsequently filled by siltation. Local tectonic subsidence along faults of the Dead Sea transform may have helped form the lagoon. Freshwater Candona sp. ostracods found in sand layers in the lagoon facies show signs of having been transported and redeposited. These data indicate that lakes or marshes were likely located inland of the study area. Supporting faunal and floral evidence for wetter climatic conditions, wetland habitats, and extensive water diversion and agricultural terraces has been excavated at late Chalcolithic (4000–3500 B.C.) sites in the Aqaba region (Khalil & Schmidt, 2009 ). By the 8th century B.C., the depositional environment along the coastal plain of Aqaba was dominated by distal alluvial fan and eolian sedimentation and the shoreline had prograded about 400m seaward. The migration of human settlements since the 8th century B.C. from the center of the valley toward the southeast may be driven by the changing course of Wadi Yutim and conditions along the coastal plain. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change     

Matthew Ranson  Carolyn Kousky  Matthias Ruth  Lesley Jantarasami  Allison Crimmins  Lisa Tarquinio 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):227-241

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.  相似文献   

Prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Challenges for sustainable livelihoods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nesar Ahmed  Max Troell  Edward H. Allison  James F. Muir 《Marine Policy》2010,34(2):218-227

Fishing for prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) postlarvae is a major contributor to the livelihoods of the coastal poor in Bangladesh, including women. A study of coastal livelihoods along the lower Pasur River in southwest Bangladesh indicates that on average 40% of total annual income comes from postlarvae fishing during the few months involved. However, indiscriminate fishing of wild postlarvae, with high levels of by-catch, has an impact on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. This has provoked imposition of restrictions on postlarvae collection. The ban has, however, not been firmly enforced because of the lack of alternative livelihoods for coastal poor. A conceptual framework, drawn from an approach to poverty reduction known as the sustainable livelihoods approach, is applied to understanding the role of prawn postlarvae fishing. Evidence from this study suggests that postlarvae fishers faced a number of livelihood constraints, including poor livelihood assets. This paper concludes that wider livelihood options need to be found for postlarvae fishers to support their livelihoods.  相似文献